Happy New Year!
Hope you had a good holiday season! We’re glad to be home after our last two events of the year — Silverlinings Cloud Executive Summit in Sonoma, California and Upperside’s SD-WAN/SASE in Paris. We were at 21 events (7 international) in 2023 — whew!
2024 Event Calendar
We’re planning the 2024 AvidThink event calendar, hoping to reduce travel this year. With seven events in Europe and 1 in Asia so far, you may wonder if we’ll succeed. Not all events are up — we’re working through our client and partner commitments. If there’s an event you think we should be at, drop us a note at [email protected].
Book Time at MWC 2024
Speaking of events, we’re locking down slots for MWC Barcelona. As part of our partnership with Jim Carroll of Converge Digest, we’re taking reservations for onsite sponsored interviews (check out our MWC 2023 and MWC 2022 showcases). Email [email protected] to grab a time slot with Jim (do it early). For an analyst briefing with AvidThink, email [email protected].
Start Your Year with NextGenInfra
We’ve been busy on NextGenInfra.io. View recent showcases and download AvidThink reports:
- Data Center Networking for AI and Cloud — Read what we have to say about the bifurcation of data center architectures. Plus, exclusive video content from leaders at Arrcus, Napatech, Broadcom, Marvell, Juniper, Ampere, Microsoft, OCP, and fellow analyst firms 650 Group and Dell’Oro.
- Private 5G — See our views on the hot yet not (or not yet hot) Private Wireless market. Plus insights from Dell, Spirent, Aarna Networks, Napatech, HPE Aruba, Boingo, Airspace, Interdigital, JMA Wireless, Juniper, NTT, fellow analysts at 650 Group, Dell’Oro, and neXt Curve.
- SASE, SD-WAN, Enterprise Edge, and Cloud Networking — The latest on SASE, SD-WAN, multi-cloud, ZTNA, and yes, NaaS!
Plus, check out video showcases from prominent Infratech events:
- Upperside SD-WAN and SASE Summit 2023 — NEW!
- OCP Summit 2023
- MEF Global NaaS Event 2023
- MWC 2023 Las Vegas
Other AvidThink Reports and Events
Download our report written for the Linux Foundation on open source networking: “Shared Code, Shared Future.” Given the recent perturbations in the open source landscape (Hashicorp and OpenBAO, OpenTofu), it’s even more critical that we encourage active engagement with open ecosystems.
Other recent event recordings of note:
- IBM Webinar — Making business-critical network decisions through cloud and digital journeys – Roy joins Terry Bernstein, Sr. Director of Product Management at NS1, an IBM Company, to discuss the importance of DNS in managing customer experience and resiliency.
- Fierce Wireless Webinar — Importance of Testing in 6G – Roy moderates panelists Beth Cohen of Verizon and Sebastien Faye of the Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology (LIST, ITIS department) as they discuss 6G Testing & Measurement.
- Aira Technologies: Role of AI in RAN recordings from the event at McKinsey’s Redwood City offices. The GenAI panel is here on YouTube.
News
Before we jump to December 2023 news highlights, here are a few related items:
- Forbes Article – How To Lose Nearly $20 Billion: Inside The Fall Of Dish Network’s Charles Ergen And His Latest Attempt To Battle Back — Roy is quoted alongside Craig Moffett, senior managing director of MoffettNathanson and Ric Prentiss of Raymond James on a spotlight article on Charlie Ergen.
- AT&T and Ericsson (and not Nokia) open RAN announcement — we touched this news that broke right as we sent out last month’s newsletter. You’ll see more coverage in the highlights below. There’s more detail from AT&T and comebacks from Nokia. If you buy open RAN from a single vendor, does open matter?
And now, a quick rundown of the latest:
5G
Samsung’s VP Discusses 5G-Advanced Features and Deployment
Samsung’s VP of Network Strategy, Alok Shah, predicts 5G-Advanced will finalize in March 2024 under 3GPP Release 18, incorporating AI, machine learning, power efficiency, and higher order MIMO antenna arrays, potentially triggering a new equipment cycle and Open RAN adoption.
T-Mobile’s Progress on Network Slicing and 5G SA Development
T-Mobile’s CTO, John Saw, highlights significant vendor collaboration on video apps utilizing network slicing, leveraging 5G SA, and testing mmWave slicing for future business and network efficiencies, signaling a shift to 5G SA and network slicing as core business strategies.
Deutsche Telekom’s Upcoming 5G Standalone Launch
Deutsche Telekom plans a 2024 standalone 5G network launch in Germany, targeting wide population coverage (800 cities) and emphasizing enterprise SA applications, leveraging a 10K antenna network servicing the 3.6 GHz band for broad access.
T-Mobile Highlights Significant Speeds with mmWave 5G SA
T-Mobile’s tests show 5G SA networks achieving over 4.3 Gbps download speeds using mmWave spectrum with eight aggregated channels, indicating potential use cases in crowded areas or fixed wireless services.
Slow Global Adoption of Standalone 5G Networks
Dell’Oro Group reports slow global uptake of standalone 5G networks (39 deployed to date), despite their efficiency and support for new technologies like VoNR and network slicing. That compares to 200+ 5G non-standalone (NSA) and 700+ LTE networks operating today.
Three Ireland and Ericsson Lead 5G SA Trial with Technological University Shannon
Three Ireland is collaborating with Ericsson and Technological University Shannon on a 5G standalone network trial, focusing on corporate client access and research applications, showcasing potential new use cases and innovations in 5G technology.
Private Wireless
US Military Bases to Get Private 5G Networks, Boosting Open RAN Prospects
The $886B National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), wending its way through Congress, provides funding for the US military. It also mandates private 5G networks on military bases, emphasizing open RAN. The act reflects a significant move towards enhanced communications and technology infrastructure in defense, and carriers like Dish Networks are eager to participate.
GlobalData Forecasts Significant Growth in Private Wireless Network Revenue
GlobalData projects a rise in private wireless network revenue from $2.8 billion in 2022 to $7.9 billion in 2027, driven by spectrum availability and verticals like manufacturing, mining, utilities and government, particularly in the US, at 21% of total revenue, followed by China at 11%.
Rapid Expansion of Global Private Wireless Networks
Berg Insight reports a significant increase in global private LTE/5G networks, predicting an expansion from 2,900 (700 5G, 2200 LTE) to 11,900 by 2028, indicating a robust growth trajectory for dedicated enterprise and government communications.
6G
WRC-23 Allocates 6 GHz Band for Future Mobile Operations, Affecting 6G
The World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-23) designates the 6.235-7.125 GHz band for licensed mobile operations, seen as pivotal for 5G-Advanced and 6G. GSMA praised the move. However, the US FCC has already allocated this band for Wi-Fi use.
Cloud
Cisco Acquires Isovalent, Bolstering Cloud Networking Capabilities
Cisco acquires Isovalent, the creator of Cilium, enhancing its multi-cloud toolset and affirming its commitment to innovative networking and security solutions, particularly leveraging the popular eBPF technology. Cisco didn’t disclose financial terms, but The Information claims a price tag of $650M on $20M ARR.
VMware’s Shift to Annual Subscriptions Post Broadcom Acquisition
VMware’s move to annual subscriptions from perpetual licenses post-Broadcom acquisition is expected to disrupt enterprise customer operations and budgets, with potential shifts to alternative platforms, per Gartner analysis. Enterprises might seek alternatives from Nutanix and Red Hat.
IBM Launches Hybrid Cloud Mesh for Unified Multi-Cloud Connectivity
IBM announces IBM Hybrid Cloud Mesh, SaaS for seamless application connectivity in hybrid and multi-cloud environments, aiming to streamline operations across DevOps, NetOps, SecOps, and FinOps with a single pane of glass approach.
AWS re:Invent Showcases Generative AI and New Capabilities
AWS re:Invent highlights include the introduction of generative AI assistant Amazon Q and advancements in Bedrock, reflecting AWS’s commitment to offering comprehensive and customizable AI solutions across its platforms.
Open RAN
AT&T Awards $14 Billion Open RAN Contract to Ericsson, Signaling Industry Shift
AT&T commits to open RAN with a $14 billion contract to Ericsson, aiming to transition 70% of its network to open platforms by 2026, marking a significant milestone in network evolution and vendor dynamics. Besides Ericsson and Fujitsu, AT&T named Corning, Dell Technologies, and Intel as other vendors, notably not naming Nokia in the line-up.
Nokia Revamps Mobile Networks Business Amidst Open RAN Competition
Nokia responds to competitive open RAN landscape by restructuring its Mobile Networks division, aiming for resilience and profitability, while maintaining R&D and targeting significant sales and operating margin by 2026.
AT&T CFO Discusses Impact of Ericsson Open RAN Contract on Future Investments
AT&T CFO Pascal Desroches anticipates the Ericsson open RAN contract to standardize equipment and architecture, facilitating innovation and efficiencies, while signaling a decrease in capital investment moving forward. He also said that 2022 and 2023 were years of peak capital investment and that in 2024, AT&T will reduce capital investment to $21B/$22B.
Edge
American Tower Delays Edge Computing Initiatives Amidst Market Uncertainty
American Tower’s CEO Steven Vondran notes delayed edge computing demand, adjusting growth expectations while remaining optimistic about the sector’s future, reflecting broader industry hesitancy and strategic recalibration. In 2021, American Tower had previously projected the addressable market for the “metro edge’ to reach $2 billion by 2026.
AI
Meta, IBM, and Others Form AI Alliance to Accelerate Innovation and Tackle Safety
Meta and IBM lead the AI Alliance with over 50 partners, focusing on responsible AI benchmarks, open model ecosystems, hardware acceleration, and skill-building, reflecting an industry push for ethical and advanced AI systems. Members include AMD, CERN, the Cleveland Clinic, Dell Technologies, Intel, the Linux Foundation, and the National Science Foundation. Notably absent were the hyperscalers.
Open Source
Open Networking Foundation Transfers Projects to Linux Foundation
Open Networking Foundation shifts its broadband, 5G, and cloud networking projects to the Linux Foundation, introducing a new governance structure and transferring $5M in funding to continue its mission under a broader umbrella organization.
SD-WAN
Versa Networks’ SD-WAN and Security Solutions Selected for Defense Information Systems
Versa Networks will provide SD-WAN and security technologies for the Defense Information Systems Agency, enhancing communication and security across Defense Information System Network sites as part of the Thunderdome suite.
SASE
Cato Networks’ SASE Focus Positions it Against Major Networking Competitors
Cato CEO Shlomo Kramer’s commitment to SASE solutions differentiates them in a growing market (sized at $25B in 2027 by Gartner). Their single vendor SASE approach helps them compete successfully against established players like Cisco and Fortinet.
And that’s a wrap! Happy New Year again and may 2024 bring you everything you’re hoping for.
